From Gas to Groceries: Katie Taps a Financial Journalist To Explain the Cost of Conflict

Diana Valenzuela, Food and Culture Editor Wed, March 18, 2026 at 7:50 PM UTC

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From Gas to Groceries: Katie Taps a Financial Journalist To Explain the Cost of Conflict

If you're worried about how the war in Iran could affect your wallet, you've probably already read our article on the economic impacts to expect. But circumstances are ever-changing, and it can be hard to keep up.

If you want to stay up to date on the latest developments and prepare for their impacts, we've got a conversation you won't want to miss. Katie recently dug deeper into the effects of looming economic uncertainty in a segment of her Substack live show with longtime financial journalist Ron Insana, author of the Substack Message of the Markets.

Insana discussed the latest gas price increases and where they might go next, and what to expect from the Fed as it pertains to interest rates. Plus, he shared his current investing advice. Read and watch their wide-ranging conversation below to keep up.

Katie Couric Live: Iran, Markets, and National Security by Katie Couric Media

A recording from Katie Couric's live video

Read on Substack

Katie Couric: Can you talk about the impact of these rising oil prices on the global economy?

Ron Insana: It's twofold. For us, it's a little bit different: The United States now produces about 13.7 million barrels a day. Technically, we're a net exporter of crude oil. So the oil coming from the Middle East, we're far less reliant on it than, let's say, when you and I were kids in the 1970s, and we were in gas lines for an hour and a half, and people were getting beaten up waiting for gasoline because there were massive shortages here in the United States.

Having said that, the price of gas is now up — $3.80 is the national average. It's up from $2.90 just about four or five weeks ago. That cuts into consumer discretionary spending. People can't spend as much money on other stuff because they're paying for gasoline. Again, it's not quite like the 1970s. Our cars are more fuel-efficient. We have some electric vehicles. But the rest of the world also relies on relatively inexpensive gasoline, and the prices are going up all over the globe.

So it has two impacts: Number one, it boosts inflation, and it affects the cost of living. And number two, if it goes up high enough, it gets consumers to stop spending, which then raises the risk of recession. Maybe not as much here, but certainly around the rest of the world. And you run into this global problem that we used to call stagflation: Inflation is too high, growth is too low, and unemployment goes up.

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That's a problem we haven't really faced for quite a long time. It's enough to really pinch middle-income and lower-income consumers in a meaningful way.

What impact does that have on food prices and why?

Well, it certainly reduces the availability of food. And that will have a bigger impact on impoverished countries that rely on subsistence farming and things like that. If they can't get fertilizer, they can't grow food. Here, it would likely push up the price. And again, we're already complaining about grocery bills. We're complaining about affordability: housing and gasoline prices are now up year over year. And it just keeps chipping away at Americans' ability to buy whatever they need.

Again, it depends on where you are in the income ladder. If you're in the top 10 or 20 percent, you don't really notice this stuff. But if you're middle-income and lower-income, it has a profound impact on what choices you make on a daily and weekly basis. What do you buy? What do you put off? Do you shave your grocery bill to pay for gas so you can get to work? It does complicate life for a lot of people because it does bleed through to the economy so dramatically. And this can't be turned around overnight. It takes weeks, if not months, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. [A narrow, critical oil transit chokepoint through which a large share of the world’s petroleum exports pass, making any disruption a major global economic risk.] So it's not as if pulling out of the war militarily means oil and gas prices will immediately go down.

How high do you think gas prices are going to go?

We'll probably end up pushing $4 a gallon. If something else were to happen and oil were to go to $120, $130, or $140, you're starting to talk about $5-a-gallon gas.

And that's really going to hurt. And it also affects the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. There's no way the Fed's cutting rates with gasoline prices going up, adding to inflation pressures. And that may keep them from cutting rates no more than once for the remainder of the year. [The Fed announced on March 18 that it would hold interest rates.]

I know a lot of people are thinking about their airline tickets. When do you think we'll see a significant increase in fares?

The CEO of Delta just said jet fuel prices have doubled, which means they'll push up airline ticket prices even more than we've already seen. And they've been pretty expensive of late.

Now, he also said they don't see demand falling among airline passengers, which is really strange. There are major delays at airports as TSA is working without pay due to the partial government shutdown, but people are still flying, right? And they seem, for some reason, to be price-insensitive. You can expect airfares to go up, whether it's economy, first class, business class, or private.

What should the average Joe be doing? I guess, based on what you've told me, it really depends on your situation.

Yes. Giving specific advice is always very, very dangerous. So if you're 10, 20 years out from retirement, and you're committing a certain amount of your income to investment and savings, just keep doing that.

I just got my Medicare card this month; I'm turning 65 at the end of the month. We're in that window where, by age 70 or 72, you have to start taking the money out. Maybe you lighten your exposure to stocks and shift more toward bonds or other investments we consider slightly safer or less volatile.

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